THE US says its blockade on Iranian ports is working, despite several Iran-linked ships making it through in recent days.

An official said the military is gauging the blockade’s success based on the impact on Iran’s economy, not just by the number of ships getting through the line drawn on April 16.

The navy has warned it would seize ships sailing under US sanctions or those thought to be carrying “contraband”. US forces have duly boarded two sanctioned VLCCs in the Indian Ocean in recent days.

The White House has said the blockade is “completely strangling” Iran’s economy.

Even if that is true, strangulation will take a while. And the more desperate Iran’s predicament, the greater the incentive for its regime to play its Strait of Hormuz trump card for all it can get.

The question then becomes: Can Iran move sufficient oil to market to hold out against the US, or will it succumb?

Either way, the only way to restore normal energy flows in the region is a lasting diplomatic resolution.

Oil markets may respond to Truth Social posts alone, at least for the short term. But the compliant shipping industry will take much more convincing.

Declan Bush
Senior reporter, Lloyd’s List