TEN weeks into the Iran war, talks between Washington and Tehran remain stalled — as do most of the ships trapped in the Middle East Gulf.

Inside the industry, sentiment has shifted. A core group of shipowners is now preparing for a prolonged conflict, expecting only sporadic windows for transit for those willing to take on extreme risk. 

Security operators say requests for support have risen in recent days. A handful of “dark” night-time transits have reportedly been targeted by Iranian forces yet still managed to escape, setting a troubling precedent as owners and politicians probe the limits of the current stand-off amid a double blockade and faltering diplomacy.

The underlying risk to shipping has not changed, but the willingness of some owners and charterers to tolerate it for the right price, has.

For most, however, the wait drags on. Industry insiders dismiss reports that a UK-France coalition will offer imminent support, noting that planning remains heavily caveated, weeks away, and still lacks meaningful industry consultation.

Beyond shipping, the duration of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has become a central “known unknown” for the global economic outlook, alongside the pace of any recovery in energy production. 

Baseline assumptions keep slipping, and pressure points are emerging.

Global oil inventories are being depleted at record speed, heightening the risk of further price spikes as the conflict grinds on, the International Energy Agency warned on Wednesday. Stockpiles of crude and refined fuels fell by almost 4m barrels a day in April — more than the combined consumption of the UK and Germany — eroding the buffers that protect economies from supply shocks.

Nearly 1bn barrels of supply have already been lost, and given the time required to restart disrupted supply chains, that figure is likely to climb.

For now, an unusual combination is preventing a sharper market reaction: surging US seaborne exports, up 3.8m barrels a day year on year over the past month, and China’s apparent willingness to let its seaborne imports fall — down 5.5m barrels a day year on year — as it draws on inventories instead.

The question is how long this can last. If stranded ships remain stuck longer than the US or China can sustain their compensating flows, the current uneasy calm in the oil market will unravel quickly.

Richard Meade
Editor-in-chief, Lloyd’s List

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