Iranian crude exports collapse under US naval blockade
- May exports fell 84% from April and were 87% below the average recorded between May 2025 and April 2026
- Iran has shifted to smaller tankers as VLCCs leaving its ports face a higher risk of interdiction by US forces
- The export slump has forced Iran to cut crude production by 800,000 bpd, or 10% month on month, likely keeping exports constrained in the near term
- Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline throughput has been increasing with rising production but constraints at Yanbu is limiting exports
Signs point to the US Naval blockade being effective in curbing exports of Iranian crude oil with only a trickle making its way to China in May as the crisis approaches the 100-day mark
