POSIDONIA’S surface-level exuberance masked a deeper unease that markets would be unwise to ignore. 

Yes, tanker earnings remain exceptional and dry bulk sentiment is firm, but the quiet conversations in Athens told a more complicated story: supply growth is accelerating just as geopolitical uncertainty deepens, regulatory cohesion frays and the industry’s labour model strains under pressure.

The combination of high rates, ageing fleets and decarbonisation pressures is fuelling a familiar cycle of overordering. Polys Hajioannou’s comparison to 2007–2008 may sound dramatic, but the re-emergence of new Chinese yards is a flashing yellow light. With demolition muted and 20 to 25-year-old ships still finding work, fleet growth will outpace removals until rates soften — and that softening may arrive before demand recovers.

That geopolitics remains the wild card is perhaps not the most startling conclusion to walk away with after a week out of the office — but it remains the one thing that everyone goes home worrying about. 

The tanker market’s bullish consensus hinges on the idea that inefficiencies will persist and that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in time to support demand. But the more sober view in Athens was that a prolonged closure — or worse, a brief reopening followed by another shutdown — could unleash demand destruction and flood the market with ships exiting the Middle East Gulf. The timing of any normalisation in Iranian and Russian exports remains unknowable, and that uncertainty alone is enough to keep forward sentiment fragile.

Meanwhile, the anti-NZF coalition dominated the regulatory conversation, signalling that the IMO’s Net-Zero Framework is far from settled. The risk for markets is not only that the NZF passes, but that it fails — triggering the EU to push ahead with more aggressive regional rules that disproportionately hit smaller owners. Regulatory fragmentation is becoming a structural risk, not a talking point.

The week also marked AI’s arrival as a genuine industry disruptor, though leaders admitted shipping is nowhere near ready. The threat of “shadow AI” misuse and the widening skills gap underscore a broader truth: the crewing crisis is no longer a slow burn issue but a present-day constraint, intensified by the Hormuz emergency and competition for talent in traditional labour markets.

The takeaway for next week: sentiment is still strong, but the foundations are less solid than the parties suggested. Supply growth, geopolitical timing and regulatory uncertainty are now the three variables that will shape the next leg of the cycle — and none are moving in a reassuring direction.

Richard Meade
Editor-in-chief, Lloyd’s List

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