THE Strait of Hormuz remains suspended between crisis and paralysis. The world has so far dodged the summer oil shock traders feared when the chokepoint effectively closed, with crude prices improbably holding below $100 a barrel. But that stability is an illusion — a temporary reprieve engineered largely by China’s abrupt decision to slash imports by an estimated 5m barrels a day in May. That single adjustment offset almost half the global supply deficit. It is not a solution, and it cannot last.

Behind the calm surface lies a market propped up by unprecedented drawdowns of inventories and emergency reserves. As summer demand peaks, the system’s fragility will be exposed. Meanwhile, the shipping reality inside the gulf is deteriorating, not normalising.

More than 160 non‑sanctioned or non‑shadow fleet tankers have now been stranded in the Middle East Gulf for over 100 days. A quarter of mainstream tankers present at the start of the crisis have managed to escape, but only through sporadic, fleeting windows of relative calm.

Greek owners have drawn headlines for daring exits, yet they also account for the largest number of ships still trapped. China, not Greece, has been the most effective operator: Cosco has quietly withdrawn tankers and even bulkers and boxships, likely aided by diplomatic choreography with Tehran. Still, Chinese owners have 14 tankers left behind.

What is truly becoming “normal” is not the resumption of trade but the spread of darkness. Dark transits — once the signature of the sanctioned shadow fleet — are now the default for compliant operators. In March, a third of non‑Iran‑linked vessels switched off AIS while entering or exiting the gulf. By May, that figure had surged to 67%. In early June it hit 75%.

Switching off AIS does not make a ship invisible; Iranian radar can still see the hull. What it removes is identity. In a conflict where strikes have been selective, anonymity has become a form of risk management. But it also increases navigational danger, complicates rescue and raises compliance questions.

In the near term, this low‑visibility operating posture is the new normal. Even if deliberate darkness eventually recedes, the Strait of Hormuz has already shifted from a free‑flowing artery to a managed, mistrustful corridor — a place where the transponder can no longer be taken at face value.

Richard Meade
Editor-in-chief, Lloyd’s List

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