SHIPPING stocks have been on a bull run for the past year, massively outperforming the broader equity market. But the Hormuz crisis has changed the equation, slowing momentum.

To gauge  performance, Lloyd’s List analysed 29 US-listed shipowners and Breakwave Advisors’ two exchange-traded funds, comparing them to a proxy of the broader market: the SPDR ETF that tracks the S&P 500.

Two time periods were examined: the Hormuz crisis period and the past year.

Since the close on February 27, stocks in most shipping segments have performed worse than SPDR, although there are exceptions.

Very large gas carrier owners and container lines are doing better than SPDR amid the Hormuz crisis, and more significantly, the Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF (BWET) continues to shatter records, providing unprecedented returns.

Crude tanker stocks

The seven surveyed crude tanker stocks were up an average (unweighted by market cap) of 106% year on year (y/y) through Tuesday, more than quadruple SPDR’s y/y gain of 24%.

But those tanker stock gains preceded the Hormuz crisis. Since February 27, these equities are flat, down an average of 1% compared to an 8% rise for SPDR.

The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz means there is more competition for remaining crude cargoes.

Hormuz crisis stock performance ranges from a decline of 11% for DHT to a gain of 11% for International Seaways.

The BWET phenomenon

The shipping equities market has never seen anything on the scale of BWET’s returns.

This ETF buys near-dated forward freight agreements, heavily weighted (90%) to FFAs of the TD3C index, which assesses spot rates for very large crude carriers from Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabia, to Ningbo, China.

Prior to the Hormuz crisis, BWET tracked actual spot rate gains on this route. Since the Middle East war, BWET has effectively tracked the hypothetical cost of such voyages if they were to occur.

Baltic Exchange panellists assess fixtures on comparable Middle East voyages from ports outside the strait, then add a risk premium to generate the TD3C assessment from Ras Tanura.

An analysis by Signal Ocean found that of 354 reported spot tanker fixtures in the Middle East between March 2 and May 29, only one was from Ras Tanura.

Mercuria has filed suit against the Baltic Exchange, alleging that “the TD3C benchmark no longer reflects the market or the economic reality of the voyage it is intended to represent”. A trial will be held in London in October.

Regardless of the controversy, TD3C FFAs continue to trade, and BWET continues to reflect the hypothetical TD3C assessments.

The Baltic assessed the TD3C at $401,612 per day on Wednesday, more than quadruple Atlantic basin VLCC indexes that reflect the actual market.

The closing price of BWET was up 1,773% year on year on Tuesday — 18.7 times its price a year ago.

Since February 27, BWET has surged 232%. Its closing price on Tuesday was 3.3 times higher than before the Hormuz crisis began.

Daily trading volume in BWET since early March has been nine times higher than the average in the previous nine months.

In contrast to BWET, the average share price of four VLCC owners (Frontline, Okeanis Eco Tankers, DHT and International Seaways) — whose stocks are driven by actual fixtures, not hypotheticals — were down an average of 1% on Tuesday versus February 27.

Product tanker stocks

The four surveyed product tanker stocks were up 81% y/y, more than triple SPDR’s gains.

However, these product tanker stocks are flat (up 1%) versus February 27, well below the increase in SPDR through Tuesday.

As with the crude sector, the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz means there is more competition for remaining clean product cargoes.

Share changes amid the Hormuz crisis range from a 3% gain for Hafnia to a 2% decline for Scorpio Tankers.

Gas shipping stocks

The four surveyed gas shipping stocks are up 78% y/y, more than triple’s SPDR’s increase.

The gas shipping stocks, unlike crude and product tanker stocks, have continued to add to their gains amid the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and continue to outperform SPDR.

Very large gas carrier stocks have fared the best, mirroring strong crisis-period moves in the VLGC spot market.

The Baltic Exchange’s US Gulf-Japan VLGC spot index was at $154,945 per day on Wednesday, more than double the assessment in late February.

The adjusted closing price of VLGC owner BW LPG was up 21% versus February 27 on Tuesday, with shares of Dorian LPG up 20%.

That said, VLGC stocks are closely tracking spot trends, and the trend for VLCG rates is negative. The US Gulf-Japan index has fallen 23% since its peak on May 26.

Dry bulk stocks

The six surveyed dry bulk stocks are up 102% y/y, over four times SPDR, yet they are up only 1% since February 27, underperforming the S&P 500 benchmark.

Breakwave’s BDRY ETF is roughly in line with dry bulk owner performance, up 2% over the same timeframe.

Dry bulk is relatively unaffected by the Hormuz crisis, with the exception of much higher fuel costs and stronger demand for coal to replace natural gas.

Container shipping stocks

Lloyd’s List surveyed three US-listed container shipping stocks — container line Matson and boxship lessors Costamare and GSL — but excluded Zim. Zim is in the midst of a takeover by Hapag-Lloyd and its stock moves do not reflect market conditions.

The three surveyed companies’ shares rose 74% y/y, triple SPDR. They are up only 1% during the Hormuz crisis; however, there is a big difference between liner and lessor stocks.

The adjusted close of Matson is up 17% since February 27, more than double SPDR.

Container lines have been able to pass along fuel costs to shippers via surcharges and higher spot rates. In addition, importer frontloading has pushed spot rates beyond the fuel-cost offset, boosting the profit outlook for 3Q26.

In contrast, the adjusted close of boxship lessors GSL and Costamare were down 5% and 8%, respectively, on Tuesday versus February 27.

Multi-segment owner stocks

Shares of five surveyed multi-segment owners were up 48% y/y, more than double SPDR.

But as with most other shipping segments, momentum has stalled. They are up only 4% during the Hormuz crisis. Danaos is up 11%, CMB.Tech and SFL are up 5%, Navios Partners is flat and Capital Clean Energy Carriers is down 2%.