IS THE Strait of Hormuz open or closed? 

Even as US forces were shooting down Iranian drones, striking ships and Donald Trump was threatening to “take” Kharg Island on Thursday, Washington was insisting the strait remained open for business.

Tehran, meanwhile, was declaring the strait closed, threatening to target any vessel attempting passage.

Iran’s foreign minister went further, claiming Hormuz “is not in international waters”, suggesting that negotiations over restoring freedom of navigation were going nowhere fast.

Hours later the US threats were withdrawn, and a deal was back on the table and US Central Command was promising “safe pathways” for commercial shipping.

Trump has claimed 100m barrels of oil are currently moving through the strait — a figure that appears inflated — but tanker movements have indeed shifted.

The US is not running formal convoys, yet limited overwatch by drones and autonomous systems has resumed along the Omani coast.

In practice, the industry is improvising. Loaded tankers are exiting the Middle East Gulf, conducting ship‑to‑ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman, then sending empty vessels back, dark, through Hormuz to reload in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain or Iraq. Meanwhile, Iranian and “dark fleet” tankers continue to slip through via Iranian, Pakistani and Indian territorial waters, conducting their own STS operations far from prying eyes. In other words: a chaotic version of business as usual.

The market mood had flipped weeks ago from TACO — “Trump Always Chickens Out” — to NACHO: “Not A Chance Hormuz Opens”.

Despite the series of false promises, financial markets appear to be reacting as if a deal is under way.

Even if it does emerge, CMA CGM chief Rodolphe Saadé warned this week that it would be “unwise” to assume a return to pre‑crisis norms.

And right now, the security risk for shipping remains as high as ever.

The deaths of three merchant mariners aboard Settebello (IMO: 9162916) fundamentally alter the maritime risk landscape even as a peace deal is nominally on the table.

While US authorities characterize these operations as precision actions intended to disable vessels rather than destroy them, the incident demonstrates that enforcement operations against suspected sanctions violators can result in fatal consequences for civilian crews.

But beyond today’s open‑closed whiplash lies a darker trajectory: a maritime order splintering into rival blocs, chokepoints treated as leverage rather than shared lifelines and freedom of navigation eroded into a relic. From the Bosporus to Malacca to Hormuz, the lesson being absorbed is simple and dangerous — chokepoints can be weaponised with impunity.

The longer this crisis drags on, the more likely it becomes that the real story isn’t Hormuz today, but the world it is ushering in.

Richard Meade
Editor-in-chief, Lloyd’s List

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