Shadow fleet tanker tonnage to fall if sanctions are lifted on Iranian crude
- Waivers and an impending final deal, which could lift Iranian sanctions, will see demand for Iranian barrels rise with Chinese state-owned refiners eager to restock
- Mainstream operators are likely to reposition up to 83 VLCCs from the Atlantic Gulf to the MEG to export barrels to Northeast Asia, even if daily rates are discounted by 45%
- Younger, compliant vessels could pull more tonnage while older shadow fleet vessels stick to current Malaysian STS routes if future economics for Iranian crude allows
Valuations for older VLCCs will likely fall when sanctions on Iranian crude are lifted, as ageing shadow fleet tankers quickly become scrapping candidates
