The Week in Charts: Shadow fleet tanker tonnage to fall | The dry bulk guide to El Nino | Major shipowners begin exiting vessels from MEG
- Waivers and an impending final deal, which could lift Iranian sanctions, will see demand for Iranian barrels rise with Chinese state-owned refiners eager to restock
- Weather pattern generally positive for dry bulk sector
- Many large cargoships owned by leading shipowners, which had been stuck in the MEG since February, are now starting to leave
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MAINSTREAM tankers look set to lift more tonnage as Iran returns to open markets, with the shadow fleet* sidelined by a wave of younger, compliant vessels, wrote senior reporter Matthew Rajendra.
The Memorandum of Understanding will see waivers of sanctions on Iranian crude being issued during the 60-day window for negotiations on a final deal between the US and Iran. This would go on to see the US lift sanctions on Iranian crude if the final deal is signed.
Iranian crude has faced successive US embargoes and sanctions for nearly 47 years, consistently limiting the country’s ability to produce and export oil at full capacity. China has been its top export destination in recent years, with teapot refiners favouring Iranian crude oil because of steep discounts for being sanctioned.
The dry bulk guide to El Nino
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has declared that El Nino conditions have begun, wrote senior reporter Joshua Minchin.
In simple terms, winds that usually blow east to west weaken, and warmer water shifts back towards the Americas rather than Australia and Southeast Asia.
El Nino cycles can cause extreme weather in certain places around the world, and this latest edition is expected be particularly strong.
Major shipowners begin exiting vessels from MEG after US-Iran accord eases Hormuz restrictions
Several large cargo vessels controlled by some of the world’s leading shipowners, including Grimaldi Group, Cosco and NYK, are finally escaping the Middle East Gulf after being effectively marooned there since February, wrote markets editor Rob Willmington and Joshua Minchin.
Their departure follows the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding between the United States and Iran aimed at easing tensions and beginning the immediate lifting of military measures that had severely disrupted commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz.
Among the first vessels to leave was Grimaldi Group’s 7,600 ceu vehicle carrier Grande Torino (IMO: 9782675), whose last Automatic Identification System broadcast at 0830 hrs on June 18 showed it transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
How strait reopening could impact VLCC rates in Middle East and Atlantic
Crude tanker freight rates are poised for significant change if a US-Iran peace framework translates into a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, wrote senior maritime reporter Greg Miller.
“The US-Iran interim peace deal announced Sunday night is the most consequential event for dirty tanker freight since the Hormuz closure in late February,” wrote Sparta Commodities last week.
The new agreement “is by far the most significant jolt to oil and tanker markets since Iran closed the strait at the end of February”, said BRS.
Ship recycling sales rise, but monsoon season clouds recovery
Many notable ship recycling sales have been concluded recently although any significant recovery in activity will likely be constrained by the coming Indian subcontinent’s monsoon season, which limits vessel beaching operations, wrote Rob Willmington.
Among the latest deals, the Stolt Tankers-controlled chemical tanker Stolt Innovation (IMO: 9102069) has been sold for recycling in India, reports cash buyer Wirana Shipping.
The 1996-built, 36,700 dwt, vessel is expected to have achieved a price far above prevailing market levels due to the high value of its stainless steel cargo tanks.
