CONTAINERS lines are riding high right now.

Maersk’s decision this week to raise its full-year earnings guidance by at least $1bn, citing stronger-than-expected Far East demand fuelled by new US tariffs, underlines just how profitable disruption can be for shipping when capacity is tight and trade flows are shifting.

But that’s the short-term view. Container leaders are painfully aware of the uncertainty headed their way and they have been rewiring their companies for a future in which freight volatility is no longer cyclical but structural.

CMA CGM’s agreement to acquire FedEx’s third-party logistics arm for $1.4bn can be seen as part of that long-term shift.

The French carrier’s $5.2bn acquisition of Bolloré Logistics two years ago was a far bigger statement of intent, using pandemic-era windfalls to transform itself into one of the world’s leading logistics providers. The latest deal simply pushes that strategy further.

Part of this expansion is specific to CMA CGM and chief executive Rodolphe Saadé’s ambition to build a diversified transport and logistics group with growing exposure to the US market. His pledge to invest $20bn in the US over four years reflects that vision, and arguably political opportunism.

There is also a touch of irony here. Little more than a decade ago, reports suggested FedEx itself was considering launching a container shipping business. Today, it is selling logistics assets to one of the sector’s largest ocean carriers.

It is too soon to tell whether the deals will ultimately prove to be a success. Integrating thousands of employees, systems and customer relationships is never straightforward. The history of logistics is littered with acquisitions that looked compelling on paper but struggled in practice. Even so, CMA CGM’s wager on greater vertical integration, supported by emerging AI-driven efficiencies, is one way to insulate itself from an increasingly unpredictable market.

That unpredictability is becoming the defining feature of global supply chains. Tariff complexity, geopolitical tensions, shifting trade patterns, artificial intelligence and new network designs are no longer temporary disruptions; they are permanent characteristics of the operating environment. Recent research from the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals suggests geopolitical shocks and trade policy changes now exert more influence on logistics markets than traditional supply-and-demand fundamentals.

The result is a fragmented market in which rates and capacity increasingly diverge by trade lane, forcing companies to redesign supply chains rather than wait for stability to return. The World Bank’s Global Supply Chain Stress Index offers a stark illustration: despite claims of resilience, more than 2m teu of cargo is currently caught up in delays, the highest level since the pandemic era.

For shipping executives, the message is clear. Volatility is no longer a risk to manage. It is the business model’s permanent backdrop.

Richard Meade
Editor-in-chief, Lloyd’s List 

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