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Strait of Hormuz crisis Tankers and Gas China Merchants Energy Shipping

China Merchants stays bullish on VLCCs as market debates whether rally has legs

  • CMES dismisses the nearly 40% drop in VLCC spot rates since late-June as distortion, raising its second-half rate outlook on expectations of recovering Chinese crude imports and strong Middle East Gulf export activity
  • Vortexa analyst warns the market is shifting from risk-driven pricing to fundamentals, with returning tonnage and normalising trade patterns likely to cap upside
  • Residual geopolitical risk premium remains embedded in rates, with the pace of VLCC repositioning into the MEG seen as a key indicator for freight direction

  • Analysis

Whether demand can absorb the tonnage flowing back into the Middle East Gulf market has become a key question dividing views on market outlook

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