THE return of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is being treated by some as evidence that the crisis has passed. It has not.

The market’s increasingly blasé reaction to reports of ships being attacked or disrupted in the Middle East Gulf reflects a belief that traffic will continue flowing, albeit intermittently. For now, that assumption holds. Ships are moving. Cargoes are loading. But even the most optimistic oil market analyst would struggle to describe current conditions as a reliable trading environment.

What has emerged is a stop-start pattern in which periods of relative calm are punctuated by renewed security incidents, diplomatic setbacks and sudden shifts in sentiment.

That irregularity matters because it disrupts tanker flows in both directions through Hormuz, creating volatility in freight markets and undermining confidence in future trade.

There is little reason to expect that volatility to disappear soon. The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire remains fragile, while the US-Iran understanding that helped restore traffic leaves several critical issues unresolved.

Chief among them is the governance and security of navigation through Hormuz itself — a lever of influence Tehran is unlikely to relinquish lightly. Every stage of the negotiations therefore presents an opportunity for the current truce to fray, with each flare-up likely to trigger sharp swings in freight rates, earnings and oil prices.

The question is not whether ships can transit Hormuz tomorrow. Some undoubtedly will. The deeper issue is whether they can continue doing so safely, predictably and at scale.

Energy security is often framed as a production problem: how much oil, gas and LNG the world can produce, and where those volumes originate. But supply is only as secure as the routes that carry it.

Maritime arteries do not need to be formally closed for global trade to seize up.

When risks become impossible to price, and shipowners can no longer offer credible assurances regarding crews, cargoes and insurance cover, most operators will step back regardless of how attractive the risk premium appears.

As Mitsui OSK Lines chief executive Takeshi Hashimoto observed at the outset of the conflict, global supply chains depend on predictability. A single successful transit does not make a route secure. What matters is the confidence that the next voyage — and the one after that — can also proceed safely.

That confidence remains absent 130 days into the crisis. Until it returns, uncertainty risks becoming paralysis. And when paralysis occurs at a strategic chokepoint such as Hormuz, the consequences extend far beyond shipping.

The durability of the US-Iran agreement may prove the most important economic variable of the second half of 2026. If it holds, the global economy gains an energy-driven disinflationary tailwind. If it fails, the world may find itself confronting a second oil shock. Everything else depends on which domino falls first.

Richard Meade
Editor-in-chief, Lloyd’s List

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