SHIPPING has weathered successive crises by relying on a simple assumption: however dangerous conditions become, enough seafarers will continue turning up for work.

From the Black Sea to the Strait of Hormuz, merchant crews have long accepted elevated levels of risk as part of the profession. Mines, missiles and drones threatened ships, but there remained a broadly held belief that merchant vessels themselves — not the civilians serving on them — were the intended targets.

That distinction is beginning to disappear.

Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports and merchant shipping have intensified in recent weeks, damaging vessels, disrupting port operations and causing further casualties among civilian seafarers. The suspension of search-and-rescue operations because of drone threats highlights how difficult it is becoming to maintain even basic maritime safety functions in parts of the Black Sea.

Several experienced masters have told Lloyd’s List they no longer regard the region as a manageable commercial risk but as an active battlefield.

One tanker captain, whose vessel was allegedly attacked shortly after departing a Russian port with a cargo of naphtha, said the experience convinced him never to return. According to the master, multiple drones approached the vessel, with two targeting crew accommodation areas. Only pre-planned emergency procedures and the crew’s rapid movement into protected spaces prevented casualties.

His concern was not simply personal. It reflected a wider fear that the industry’s response to escalating danger may increasingly be to offer higher wages and larger risk bonuses.

That approach may solve a recruitment problem, but it cannot solve an experience problem.

Shipping can absorb higher insurance premiums, rerouted cargoes and disrupted schedules. Replacing experienced masters and senior officers is far harder. If seasoned seafarers decide that risk has exceeded acceptable limits, owners will still find crews willing to sail. But the people accepting those assignments may not always possess the same depth of operational experience required to navigate complex and hostile environments.

The result may not be a labour shortage in numerical terms. It may be a gradual erosion of onboard competence precisely when ships need it most.

This matters far beyond the Black Sea. Simultaneous instability in the Strait of Hormuz, Bab el Mandeb and the Black Sea is creating cumulative pressure on global trade routes and energy supply chains. At least 30 seafarers have already been killed in attacks on ships this year, and that toll is likely to rise.

For decades, shipping has measured war risk largely through the value of ships and cargoes. Increasingly, the critical variable may be the willingness of experienced seafarers to make the voyage at all.

Richard Meade
Editor-in-chief, Lloyd’s List  

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