OVER the past two weeks, the crisis centred on the Strait of Hormuz has expanded beyond the Middle East Gulf to encompass the Bab el Mandeb and the Suez Canal. Increasingly, commentators speak of a three-chokepoint crisis.

Less attention has been paid to another development: the growing intersection between the conflicts involving the US, Israel and Iran, and the war between Russia and Ukraine. The recent Ukrainian strike on an Iranian-flagged vessel in the Caspian Sea, reportedly carrying weapons bound for Russia, illustrates how previously distinct theatres of conflict are becoming interconnected.

The implications extend far beyond the immediate combatants. For years, Iran’s support for Russia’s war effort has altered the balance of the conflict in Ukraine. More recently, reports have suggested increased co-operation among actors operating across these overlapping security crises. What once appeared to be separate geopolitical wounds are beginning to merge.

The result is a broader infection spreading through the maritime system.

If global trade is the lifeblood of the world economy, shipping lanes are its circulatory system. Today, multiple maritime arteries are under strain simultaneously. From the Caspian Sea through the Sea of Azov, the Kerch Strait, the Black Sea and the Turkish Straits, across the eastern Mediterranean and Suez, through the Red Sea and Bab el Mandeb, and onward to the Gulf of Oman and Strait of Hormuz, conflict now stretches across an increasingly connected maritime geography.

Even beyond these flashpoints, piracy incidents have risen sharply in parts of the Arabian Sea and north-west Indian Ocean. Against the backdrop of missile attacks, armed conflict and escalating geopolitical confrontation, these incidents risk being overlooked despite posing their own threat to maritime security.

As the infection spreads through the world’s waterways, the question is not simply whether trade routes can remain open. It is whether the principles that underpin international maritime commerce can remain intact.

Three foundations of the maritime order are showing signs of strain.

First, freedom of navigation, long treated as a cornerstone of global trade, is being challenged from multiple directions.

Second, the preservation of human life at sea appears increasingly vulnerable. Seafarers continue to carry more than 80% of global trade, often through conflict zones, yet concern for their safety does not always seem to match the risks they are asked to assume.

Third, the principle of uniformity, which allows maritime commerce to function consistently across jurisdictions and regions, is under pressure as governments adopt divergent approaches to security, sanctions, regulation and transit rights.

The concern is not merely the disruption of individual chokepoints. It is the possibility that the system itself begins to weaken.

Shipping has traditionally favoured efficiency over redundancy. Thin margins and decades of just-in-time supply chain management have left little room for excess capacity or alternative routing. Yet the succession of shocks experienced since the pandemic has exposed the fragility of that model. Resilience, once viewed as a cost, is increasingly becoming a necessity.

Perhaps most worrying is the extent to which many political leaders depend on maritime trade while possessing only a limited understanding of how it operates. Debates surrounding the Strait of Hormuz have, at times, revealed a striking shortage of maritime expertise and too little appreciation of the people responsible for moving global commerce.

That gap matters.

The shipping industry may therefore need to speak more clearly and more forcefully about its operational realities. Military planners may regard a 99% interception rate against missiles and drones as a success. For commercial shipping, however, the 1% that strikes a vessel and closes a trade route can have profound consequences. Governments and industry often view risk through different lenses, and effective policy requires understanding both.

The maritime sector cannot resolve the geopolitical crises now spreading across the world's waterways. It can, however, explain what conditions are necessary for trade to continue flowing safely and efficiently.

At present, a growing combination of physical, legal and economic barriers is constricting the movement of commerce. Temporary workarounds have prevented the worst outcomes, but they have not cured the underlying condition. Unless policy makers address the causes rather than merely treating the symptoms, the infection will continue to spread through the arteries of global trade, placing the health of the entire system at risk.

Rohini Ralby and Dr Ian Ralby are managing director and chief executive of I.R. Consilium, a maritime and resource security consultancy that advises on navigating the impediments to world trade.

Dr Ralby appeared on this week’s edition of the Lloyd’s List webinar which can viewed on demand here