THERE is no shortage of contenders for that grim title. The Strait of Hormuz has dominated shipping risk headlines for months, while the Red Sea remains a persistent threat to merchant vessels.

But right now, the strongest claim belongs to the Black Sea.

If figures cited by Turkish seafarers’ union Deniz Iscileri are even close to accurate, 23 seafarers lost their lives in July alone. The opaque nature of the conflict makes any casualty count difficult to verify, but there is little doubt the toll is rising sharply.

That would make last month the deadliest for merchant seafarers since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began more than four years ago.

What is most striking is not only the number of incidents, but their frequency. Commercial vessels are increasingly being caught in a cycle of escalation in which strikes on Russian ports, tankers and merchant ships are met with retaliatory attacks on Ukrainian ports and commercial traffic.

Even in the Strait of Hormuz, where vessels face near-daily threats and disruptions, the monthly death tally has not approached these levels.

As Moscow and Kyiv head further into escalation, Ukrainian strikes on shadow fleet tankers and Novorossiysk are answered by Russian attacks on Odesa and merchant shipping.

The line between civilian and military activity, one analyst told Lloyd’s List, is becoming dangerously blurred.

Loading oil at or near a Russian port now appears sufficient grounds for attack, even when the cargo is Kazakh crude destined for an EU refinery. Equally, vessels loading grain in Ukrainian ports are increasingly viewed as legitimate targets.

The fog of war makes such claims difficult to test. Determining whether the oil being loaded is really Kazakh or the cargo at Odesa is actually grain and not weapons is extremely difficult, if not impossible for those not immediately involved.

But that is increasingly beside the point. For the seafarers on board, the risk is much the same regardless of whether the cargo is oil or grain, civilian trade or something more strategically significant.

The past month has taught us that no flag, nationality or operator guarantees immunity from attack in the region. Just ask the Greek owners of Nissos Sifnos (IMO: 9884045) and Nissos Ios (IMO: 9886770), or the Bermudan/Norwegian owners of Nordic Zenith (IMO: 9588469), all attacked at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal, who are ostensibly Ukrainian allies.

Managing risk in the Black Sea is becoming increasingly difficult. Perhaps the clearest warning sign is that seafarers, a workforce accustomed to operating in many of the industry’s most hazardous environments, are beginning to refuse jobs in the region.

It is hard to fault that judgement. As the distinction between merchant shipping and military targets continues to erode, seafarers are being asked to shoulder the risks of a conflict over which they have no control and from which they have little protection.

Joshua Minchin
Senior reporter, Lloyd’s List

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