FOR much of the past decade, uncertainty has been treated as an economic shock in its own right. Wars, pandemics, trade disputes and energy crises have triggered familiar predictions: investment will stall, growth will weaken and businesses will retreat until clarity returns. Yet recent evidence suggests that uncertainty may no longer be having the effect economists once assumed.

That is an uncomfortable conclusion. By any conventional measure, the world appears exceptionally uncertain. The war between the US and Iran pushed media references to oil supply disruption to record levels, no doubt at least partly fuelled by our own analysis of the intractable issues yet to be resolved in the Strait of Hormuz. Tariff disputes continue to reshape global trade patterns. Artificial intelligence is generating both extraordinary optimism and profound anxiety about the future of work.

And yet businesses seem, remarkably, relatively calm.

Oxford Economics’ latest Global Risk Survey found that around two fifths of the rise in business uncertainty triggered by the Middle East conflict has already unwound. Companies report greater confidence in the global outlook than they did during the pandemic, after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine or following Donald Trump’s tariff announcements in 2025.

The obvious question is why.

Part of the answer is adaptation. Trade policy uncertainty, once capable of freezing investment decisions, has become background noise. What once constituted a shock is increasingly viewed as the cost of doing business.

The same may be true of energy markets. Oil supply uncertainty remains elevated, but economies are less dependent on oil than they were during the crises of the 1970s. Shale production, renewable energy and more diversified energy systems have reduced vulnerability to supply disruptions. Investment still suffers when uncertainty rises, but the effect appears weaker and slower to materialise.

More surprising is AI’s role in sustaining confidence. Unlike traditional forms of uncertainty, AI may be encouraging investment rather than delaying it. Businesses fear being left behind. The potential rewards of securing an early advantage appear large enough to justify investment despite incomplete information about future returns.

FOMO is something shipping understands only too well.

None of this means the global economy is invulnerable. Resilience owes something to luck as well as strength. But it does suggest that uncertainty itself is changing. After years of overlapping crises, businesses have learned to live with uncertainty. The greater danger may be assuming that resilience will last for ever.

Richard Meade
Editor-in-chief, Lloyd’s List 

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