LLOYD’S List Intelligence data suggests shipping through the Bab el Mandeb has proved surprisingly resilient during the first weeks of the Houthi blockade on Saudi-linked shipping, even as the United Nations warns Yemen is edging closer to a return to full-scale war and maritime security analysts warn that Houthi attacks could yet escalate, wrote Editor-in-Chief Richard Meade.

Vessel traffic through the southern Red Sea chokepoint has remained relatively stable since the Houthis announced a naval blockade targeting Saudi-affiliated shipping on July 20, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence data.

At least 273 ship transits were recorded through the Bab el Mandeb between July 27 and August 2, slightly above the previous week’s 269 crossings. Averaged across the first two weeks of the blockade, traffic was running about 15% below levels seen during the preceding month.

NOAA upgrades El Niño warning and outlook for Panama Canal worsens

Yet another chokepoint could join the parade — alongside the Strait of Hormuz, Red Sea and Black Sea — if drought conditions return to the Panama Canal due to a predicted “Super El Niño” in late 2026, wrote senior maritime reporter Greg Miller.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said on Thursday that existing El Niño conditions are “strengthening” with the chance of a “very strong” El Niño in fall and winter 2026-2027 rising to over 90%, with a 69% chance that conditions in October-November will be the most severe on record.

The Panama Canal Authority (ACP) has already announced five successive draught restrictions for the neopanamax locks, culminating in the latest reduction to 47.5 ft (14.5m) effective September 3, down from the normal level of 50 ft that prevailed before July 3.

Coal’s rebound continues as El Nino bites

Many have predicted that coal’s fortunes as a commodity would turn around in 2026, wrote senior reporter Joshua Minchin.

Last year was, as some have said, a terrible year for the seaborne coal trade. Annual volumes declined more than 3% year on year, driven particularly by weak Chinese demand.

But 2026 has seen coal bounce back, driven in part by the weather. The El Nino effect is in full swing, meaning higher sea temperatures in the Pacific and drier, warmer conditions in Southeast Asia.

Tankers keep moving through Hormuz as diplomacy stalls

Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has continued despite persistent tensions between the US and Iran, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence data, although the security environment has clearly affected both the volume and visibility of shipping, wrote APAC editor Cichen Shen.

The vast majority of last week’s trackable transits were made up of mainstream vessels. A total of 30 non-Iran-linked crude and product tanker transits were identified during August 3-9, including 19 very large crude carrier movements. While this was below the 41 tanker and 26 VLCC transits recorded in the previous week, the apparent decline should be treated with caution.

All of the latest non-Iranian tanker passages — including all VLCC movements — were classified as dark transits, meaning the vessels switched off AIS signals while crossing the strait and only reappeared after completing their respective passages.

Cosco vehicle carrier fire puts safety risks back in focus

The current status of Cosco Shipping’s fire-damaged vehicle carrier Min Jiang Kou (IMO: 9991771) remains unclear. But the incident is significant as the 2024-built vessel is the first LNG dual-fuel pure car and truck carrier to have suffered a serious fire and is by far the largest vessel of its type to have been involved in such an incident, wrote markets editor Rob Willmington.

The 7,500 ceu Min Jiang Kou, managed by Hong Kong’s Wallem Shipmanagement and ultimately owned by Bocom Financial Leasing, suffered an engine room fire about 600 nautical miles southeast of Costa Rica last Thursday, August 6.

The vessel was sailing from Tianjin, China to Manta, Ecuador with 22 crew members aboard when the crew raised an Inmarsat GMDSS distress alert, prompting the US Coast Guard to establish contact with the vessel’s manager.