How would Hormuz crisis lasting through 2027 impact tankers?
- Calendar-year 2027 FFAs for the TD3C MEG-China VLCC route are up 100% over the past week and 142% over the past month
- There is still a risk of the world running short of oil if Hormuz crisis continues for a more prolonged period; crude deficits continue to mount
- Bifurcation of global tanker fleet based on risk tolerance seems more likely to become entrenched, just as sanctions caused the shadow fleet to become entrenched
It’s time to start taking the open-ended Hormuz crisis scenario more seriously. The status quo — or further escalation — appears more likely than a return to a pre-crisis normal
