WHILE attention remains fixed on Middle East tensions, events in the Black Sea are quietly constricting one of the world’s most important agricultural export corridors, amid the most dangerous maritime security situation since the Second World War.

Russia and Ukraine have entered a deadly new phase of economic warfare, increasingly targeting the vessels and infrastructure that underpin global grain trade.

According to Ukraine’s latest submission to the International Maritime Organization, 52 vessels, including 39 commercial ships, have been struck since the start of July, most carrying food cargoes. Kyiv says 262 merchant vessels and more than 1,000 port infrastructure facilities have been damaged or destroyed since Russia’s full-scale invasion began.

The consequences are becoming increasingly apparent. Russian attacks on Odesa and neighbouring ports have sharply reduced exports just as Ukraine’s wheat harvest peaks and the corn season approaches. Rail, road and Danube routes can absorb only a fraction of the volumes historically handled through Greater Odesa, while low river levels are creating additional bottlenecks. Seaborne grain exports have slumped, increasing pressure on storage capacity and farm finances ahead of autumn planting.

The disruption is no longer one-sided. Ukrainian strikes on Novorossiysk have also hit Russia’s export capacity, forcing temporary suspensions at major grain terminals and disrupting crude loadings. Both sides now appear willing to treat maritime commerce as a strategic target.

The market response has been swift. Hull war risk premiums have risen from about 0.5% of vessel value a month ago to several percentage points, with some river port calls reportedly attracting quotes of up to 10%. The challenge is not simply higher costs but greater uncertainty. As underwriters acknowledge, rates are “all over the place”, reflecting a conflict in which neither the scale nor location of the next attack can be predicted with confidence.

More troubling is the apparent shift from collateral damage to direct risk for merchant shipping and crews. Attacks on bulk carriers Golden Leo (IMO: 9181833) and Venturo (IMO: 9554664), together with five grain ships near Novorossiysk within 72 hours, have heightened concerns that commercial vessels are becoming caught in a campaign of reciprocal strikes on food exports. Seafarers are responding accordingly, with reports that experienced officers are increasingly reluctant to accept Black Sea assignments despite enhanced war zone pay.

The Bosporus remains open and trade routes still exist. What is eroding is confidence. Shipowners, charterers, insurers and crews are all reassessing what constitutes an acceptable level of risk.

That matters far beyond the region. The Black Sea remains a crucial source of grain for import-dependent markets across the Middle East, North Africa and Asia.

If attacks continue to deter vessels from both Ukrainian and Russian ports, the result will be more than higher freight and insurance costs.

It will deliver another shock to global food supplies at a time when geopolitical disruption is becoming less an exception than a persistent feature of world trade.

Richard Meade
Editor-in-chief, Lloyd’s List

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