THE shipping industry has proved remarkably adept at keeping Middle East Gulf oil flowing despite months of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. But the latest adaptations reveal an uncomfortable reality: risk has not been eliminated. It has simply been concentrated.

Oil exports continue to move out of the gulf through an increasingly elaborate relay system. Cargoes are loaded on to shuttle tankers for the dangerous passage through Hormuz before being transferred ship-to-ship off Fujairah, Sohar or Shinas, and carried onwards to Asia by deepsea tonnage. The arrangement reduces the number of vessels and crews exposed to the highest-risk waters while preserving trade flows.

At first glance, the strategy appears to be working. Millions of barrels continue to reach market, and freight networks remain functional. Yet the system depends on a surprisingly small pool of ships and seafarers willing to undertake the most dangerous leg of the voyage.

That concentration risk is becoming harder to ignore.

Abu Dhabi National Oil Company-linked vessels have emerged as some of the most frequent targets since hostilities began in February, suffering 19 attacks and now featuring prominently on Iran’s newly published blacklist of ships accused of operating through Hormuz without approval. Tehran’s threat of fines, restrictions or even seizure may have limited immediate effect on freight markets, but it raises the personal risk for the crews tasked with keeping oil moving.

Operators have responded with increasingly specialised practices. Industry sources indicate some shuttle voyages are being conducted by dedicated crews who are swapped out once vessels clear the chokepoint. Details remain closely guarded, but the logic is clear: these are no longer routine commercial voyages.

The wider consequence is a growing shortage of seafarers willing to work in conflict zones.

Crewing specialists report sharply rising wage premiums for personnel prepared to enter either Hormuz or the Black Sea. Some companies are reportedly offering multiples of standard salaries to attract qualified crews, while industry executives warn that the available talent pool is shrinking. An able-bodied seaman who might once have earned a modest wage can now command around $5,000 a month on certain contracts, with significantly higher pay available for the riskiest assignments.

The challenge is not confined to the MEG. MSC’s suspension of bookings to Novorossiysk after a drone strike on MSC Ulsan III (IMO: 9305001) underlines how rapidly commercial shipping is becoming entangled in conflict. Operators can reroute cargoes, redesign supply chains and absorb higher insurance costs. Replacing experienced mariners willing to sail through war zones is considerably harder.

The industry’s resilience has kept trade moving. Its vulnerability increasingly lies with the people making that resilience possible.

Richard Meade
Editor-in-chief, Lloyd’s List 

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