CONTAINER spot rates to the US and Europe often follow similar trends. That has not been the case since July. There is a now a gaping premium for US-bound cargoes, and the spread with Europe continues to widen.

The Drewry World Container Index assessment for the Shanghai-New York route was at $10,373 per feu this week; last week, it was at $10,394 per feu. These rates surpass highs during the 2024 Red Sea crisis, and are the strongest since the tail end of the pandemic boom in September 2022.

The WCI Shanghai-Los Angeles spot rate assessment was at $7,838 per feu this week, the highest since June 2022.

The transpacific’s divergence from the Asia-Europe market began in early July. Since the week ending July 9, the two WCI transpacific indexes are up an average of 27% whereas the two WCI Asia-Europe indexes are down 27%.

The WCI transpacific indexes were 26% higher than the Asia-Europe indexes on July 9. This week they are 119% higher.

The same divergence is apparent in the weekly assessments of the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index and Xeneta’s daily assessments.

The SCFI transpacific assessments were 141% higher than Asia-Europe for the week ending Friday. The US premium in the Xeneta assessments, as of Thursday, averaged 137%.

Capacity management boosts vessel utilisation

How are carriers doing so much better in the transpacific than in Asia-Europe?

One theory is capacity management. Sea-Intelligence said in a report on September 20 that “vessel utilisation on the transpacific headhaul trade is consistently higher than pre-pandemic. The core reason is capacity, not demand.

“Vessel utilisation [in the transpacific] is now eight percentage points higher than it was pre-pandemic,” wrote Sea-Intelligence. “The root cause of the increased utilisation appears to be a stronger discipline in capacity deployment by carriers.”

Asked about transpacific outperformance, Lars Jensen, founder of consultancy Vespucci Maritime, told Lloyd’s List on Friday: “The data says it is about capacity.”

Container Trades Statistics data “shows cargo loaded in July, and also in June, on Asia-North America largely unchanged from two years ago, but capacity was down”.

“We could call it better capacity management but part of the ‘management’ was forced on the carriers by typhoons in Asia,” explained Jensen. “And part was carriers prioritising cargo in Asia-Europe where demand has actually grown strongly, as opposed to the Pacific.”

CTS data only goes through July. Sea-Intelligence’s analysis covers the January-July period. “Keep in mind the data is lagged,” noted Jensen.

The US-Europe index divergence has widened considerably since July, and according to offered capacity data from Xeneta, transpacific capacity has increased since then even as spot rates have continued to ascend. This implies that resilient US demand is playing a role.

Offered capacity was 380,014 teu in the Asia-US west coast lane on Thursday, up 15% versus July 1, with 190,080 teu offered in the Asia-US east coast lane, up 21%.

Carriers had offered capacity of 374,755 teu in the Asia-North Europe lane on Thursday, up 28% versus July 1, according to Xeneta.

Capacity in the Asia-Med lane was down 5% over the same period, although more boxships are now using the Suez Canal, increasing effective capacity by reducing average voyage distance.

US imports set for another strong year

The National Retail Federation expects imports this month to increase 9.6% year on year (y/y) at the 13 US ports it covers, and for full-year 2026 imports to be up 1% versus 2025, measured in teu. January-August imports were up 1% y/y.

Data from Descartes, which covers all US ports, shows teu import volumes in January-August as flat (down 0.4%) y/y.

US Census Bureau data, which measures US containerised imports by weight, is lagged, as with CTS data. Import cargo weight in January-July was flat percentage-wise y/y, according to Census Bureau data compiled by freight economist Jason Miller, a professor at Michigan State University.

Last year was very strong for US imports, and the fact that volumes are keeping pace in 2026 is impressive.

But if US volumes are basically unchanged, it bolsters the case for the capacity management theory on rates, because Asia-US spot rates are dramatically higher y/y and US ports have not had congestion issues, as has been the case in Europe.

This week’s WCI Shanghai-Los Angeles index was up 239% y/y; the WCI Shanghai-New York index was up 216% y/y.

Drivers of US import demand

US imports have benefited from multiple tailwinds in 2026, not all of them sustainable.

First, retail industry officials have confirmed that there has been frontloading due to concerns about rising fuel prices as a result of the Hormuz crisis, as well as expectations for higher US tariffs.

Second, the tariff policies of US President Donald Trump inadvertently handed US importers a one-off payment in the form of massive refunds of tariffs levied under the International Emergency Economic Power Act of 1997 (IEEPA), which were declared illegal by the Supreme Court in February.

The total amount of the refund, by far the largest in US history, is estimated to be at least $166bn. According to the latest court filing by US Customs and Border Protection, $135bn in refunds had been certified as of September 11, including $122bn that has already been sent to the Treasury Department for disbursement.

Leading US retailers have been the biggest benefactors, recouping what they paid in 2025, with refund windfalls providing more room in 2026 budgets for goods imports.

Yet another driver of US containerised import strength this year is the massive buildout of AI datacentres.

“What is in the containers is changing,” said Vincent Clerc, chief executive of Maersk, on a conference call last month.

“For a long time, the main items we were moving from the Far East were general department store goods: furniture, footwear, clothing, stuff like that. We’re now seeing a lot more industrial items driving growth: batteries, anything that has to do with electrification, cooling units for datacentres, and anything that has to do with the race to build more power capacity.

“We are becoming less seasonal and more subject to these industrial verticals,” said Clerc.

Miller said in an interview with Lloyd’s List on Friday: “When I look at it, I think a decent share of all this is derived demand from the AI datacentre ecosystem.

“There has been a bit of an improvement in US manufacturing this year, but it is really isolated to sectors where demand is derived from the datacentre ecosystem. Until you see a slowdown in AI capex, I don’t think you’re going to see a significant slowdown in containerised freight volumes.”

Comparing US imports in January-July to the year before, the biggest gainer is salt, which is used for chemical production.

Three-quarters of US-produced chemicals are used by domestic industries, and a key source of 2026 domestic demand growth, according to the American Chemistry Council, is “industries tied to datacentre investment”.

The third-largest gainer is ball bearings. “That’s a pure industrial input,” said Miller. “That could have a lot to do with the reciprocating engines and turbines that are needed for datacentre construction.”

Other big increases were logged by aluminium plates (despite a high tariff), safety glass, cement, and computers and drives, all with industrial applications.

The list of decliners in the first seven months of 2026 highlights a common theme: weakness in residential housing.

The category with the largest y/y decline is gypsum and plaster. Other decliners include furniture, ceramic tiles, plywood, shaped wood, household items, monument stone and wood fibreboard.

Many of these categories are at the top of the list of US containerised imports from Europe, meaning the drop affects the transatlantic more than the transpacific.

“I think you’re seeing the weakness of domestic housing on the consumer side of things,” said Miller.

“You’re seeing a lot less furniture being imported, which is consistent with a slower housing pace,” he said, pointing to the decline in single-family home sales. “Mortgage rates are now over 7%. That is going to hurt. That’s definitely going to be a headwind.”

Nevertheless, the economic situation in the US remains healthy, thus the resilient import figures.

“Unemployment is still at only 4.1%. You’re not seeing a tonne of job losses right now. You’re not in a situation where consumer spending is going to drop precipitously. That is only going to happen when we start seeing those job losses.”

There is also the “wealth effect” propping up US goods spending: the high value of stock portfolios, which is down from the peak but still up considerably over recent years. Beyond rising unemployment, Miller said that a “massive correction” in the stock market could dampen goods demand.

One potential catalyst for such a correction, cited by many market watchers, is a collapse in confidence in the AI business model. That would also hit container imports directly through a drop in datacentre capex and derived spending.

“The AI ecosystem is driving so much demand,” said Miller. “And this all hinges on OpenAI being profitable. It’s not enough for Anthropic to be profitable. It has to be both OpenAI and Anthropic.”

If there is an eventual crisis for AI companies due to lack of profitability, “then yes, you will see a material slowdown in containerised freight, because you’re going to see that AI capex investment falls very quickly”, Miller cautioned.