Annual Outlook 2025
Ten trends that will shape the shipping industry in 2025 and beyond
Carbon regulation and Trump 2.0 are the obvious factors on which everyone is focused for 2025 — but don’t discount the impact of transparency, Africa, asset prices and AI next year
Tankers: Market braces for further volatility, supply shocks in 2025
Western regulators are to step up sanctions enforcement on Russia and Iran, having already designated more than 200 vessels in 2024 as a bifurcated energy commodities market was firmly established
Dry bulk: Tighter supply to balance demand drop-offs
On a positive note, restrained fleet growth combined with slower sailing speeds and greater recycling, prompted by weaker rates and coming emissions regulations, will prevent 2025 from being a true annus horribilis
Dry bulk: Q4 rally could breathe life into seasonal slumber
Record grain exports from Brazil and continuing restrictions in the Panama Canal have been buoying up healthy demand
Shipbuilding: Capacity ramps up as China extends its dominance
With most top tier shipyards having a four year or more backlog of work, further capacity is being introduced to meet demand for new ships to replace the ageing fleet. However, the sector is suffering a labour shortage due to a lack of young people joining the industry. Furthermore, an increase in shipbuilding contract disputes could arise from more newbuildings being ordered from inexperienced, resurrected shipyards
Marine insurance: Firmer P&I, softer H&M and cargo
Marine insurance rating trends vary by class, but it remains a significant outlay for most operators
LPG: A second-half boost, but wildcards cloud forecast
While fourth-quarter softness is expected to extend into 2025, VLGCs should benefit from more US Gulf cargoes in the second half of next year. However, repercussions from potential Trump tariffs on China remain a key unknown
Containers: Trump tariffs, strike potential and alliance shake-up feeds anxiety
2025 opens with the prospect of industrial action at US east and Gulf coast ports, plus the Trump factor and fresh alliance schedules bringing a new wave of uncertainty to the sector
Regulation: Shipping will get a global carbon price
In April, MEPC83 will see states agree on the legal text that will turn the IMO’s climate ambition into specific, detailed regulation. The shape of that regulation will determine shipping’s future
Ship finance: Future deal flow hinges on fate of asset prices
Shipowners are flush with cash and banks are ready and willing to lend. The level of ship finance activity in 2025 will hinge on whether there is a ‘trigger’ that prompts shipowners to use their firepower. Asset prices will be a key factor to watch. If they fall to more attractive levels, it could spur more deals
LNG: Overcapacity points to further turbulence in 2025
Fleet growth is still expected to outpace expansion in liquefaction capacity, while geopolitical risks cannot be overlooked
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