Western regulators are to step up sanctions enforcement on Russia and Iran, having already designated more than 200 vessels in 2024 as a bifurcated energy commodities market was firmly established

On a positive note, restrained fleet growth combined with slower sailing speeds and greater recycling, prompted by weaker rates and coming emissions regulations, will prevent 2025 from being a true annus horribilis

Record grain exports from Brazil and continuing restrictions in the Panama Canal have been buoying up healthy demand

With most top tier shipyards having a four year or more backlog of work, further capacity is being introduced to meet demand for new ships to replace the ageing fleet. However, the sector is suffering a labour shortage due to a lack of young people joining the industry. Furthermore, an increase in shipbuilding contract disputes could arise from more newbuildings being ordered from inexperienced, resurrected shipyards

Marine insurance rating trends vary by class, but it remains a significant outlay for most operators

While fourth-quarter softness is expected to extend into 2025, VLGCs should benefit from more US Gulf cargoes in the second half of next year. However, repercussions from potential Trump tariffs on China remain a key unknown