Half-year Outlook 2025
The Lloyd’s List mid-year outlook finds shipping stalling on decisions amid geopolitical uncertainties. The outlook for seaborne trade volumes is weakening and investment in longer-term decarbonisation is on hold. An era of economic stability is ending and a new global economic and market paradigm is emerging, but the end state is not yet clear.
The future is on hold: uncertainty stymies shipping strategy
As economic stability crumbles and geopolitical tensions flare, any short-term upside from the current disruption is being outweighed by fears of an uncertain future. Strategic investment is on hold as shipping prices in the risk of the new economic landscape
Flag hopping an increasingly popular deceptive shipping tactic among sanctioned fleet
There have been 215 flag changes recorded already this year, compared to 200 in the whole of 2024
Containers: uncertainty reigns as tariff turmoil and overcapacity looms
Container shipping in 2025 remains volatile, with Trump’s trade policies fuelling uncertainty. While the global trade war dominates headlines, a more pressing and all too familiar issue looms: overcapacity
LNG shipping: outlook mired by vessel glut and China demand woes despite US-China trade truce
Despite easing China-US trade tensions, the LNG shipping market remains under pressure as weak Chinese demand, Beijing’s ongoing tariffs on US cargoes and a wave of new vessel deliveries continue to weigh on freight rates and tonne-mile demand, with any meaningful recovery unlikely before 2027
Tankers: geopolitics will be wildcard, but demand is fundamentally unexciting
Predicting what happens in the second half of the year with tankers (or any other shipping segment) may be a fool’s game, given all of the geopolitical chaos. But the base case for tankers is for steady, uninspiring profitability, as the fundamentals are not particularly strong
Dry bulk gloominess remains in 2025, but brighter times could be ahead
Analysts and owners remain pessimistic about the dry bulk market’s performance in 2025, but there is cause for some optimism in the future
Shipbuilding: supercycle set to continue while US and EU talk up shipbuilding strategies
The argument for expanding shipbuilding and marine equipment production in the West is gathering pace, while high demand for new ships across most sectors will continue, despite a recent slowdown in orders
Marine insurance: no direction home for rates in second half
Unsustainable markets are not in shipowners’ long-term interests, brokers insist
Regulation: Nervous wait for the IMO to adopt carbon pricing
The IMO’s new net zero framework is set for formal adoption in October. The regulator still has much work to complete to make the complicated scheme work
A guide to spoofing spotting
The methods involved in manipulating location information are constantly evolving and becoming more difficult to track, but many spoofing events can still be identified if you know what to look for
LPG: caught between topsy-turvy trade policies as market enters seasonally strong period
VLGCs are entering the seasonally stronger second half of the year amid the fallout from the US-China trade war
Ofac has raised the bar for sanctions compliance: are you ready?
Ofac’s updated advisory is a clarion call for maritime stakeholders to evolve beyond basic list-screening
Ship finance activity ebbs but less uncertainty could revive deal flow in second half
The hope for ship finance is that uncertainty over world trade clears, giving investors and owners more confidence, and fundamental shipping market strength and attractive valuations bring institutional investors back into the fold
Carbon taxes set to reshape shipping
Carbon pricing has moved from a regulatory abstraction to an immediate financial reality. With total costs surging towards $50bn by the end of the decade, industry players must adapt — or risk being priced out of compliance
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