GEOPOLITICAL disruptions, wars, sanctions, Opec+ production cuts and even the weather have all added tonne-mile demand at a point when fleet growth is at a record low.

We are living through something of a golden age for tankers right now and certainly nobody is expecting anything particularly untoward to hit the positive sentiment until at least 2026. Beyond that though things get interesting and what’s happening now in terms of tanker orders flooding in will ultimate determine whether 2027 is a downward swing or a crash.

Because, while things are admittedly looking pretty rosy right now for the energy shipping markets, the risks are far from removed.

If the fleet supply inefficiencies caused by the redirection of Russian oil exports away from Europe, primarily east of Suez, were to suddenly evaporate we would be looking at a very different picture.

The wider market remains delicately poised with positive and negative drivers so far largely offsetting one another

And let’s not forget Opec.

The cartel has installed production cuts since November 2022 to artificially buoy oil prices. Analysts estimate Opec+ has about 6m barrels per day of spare capacity it can unleash on to global markets to lower prices if they spike into the triple digits to prevent demand destruction.

To guide you through the current state of affairs in the tanker sector Andrew Wilson, Head of Research and Consultancy Services at BRS Shipbrokers talks to Lloyd’s List editor-in-chief Richard Meade.

There are two more editions of these mini market outlooks for you to feast your ears on this week. Lloyd’s List markets editor Rob Willmington talks to BIMCO chief analyst Niels Rasmussen about the outlook for the dry bulk markets here; and Lloyd’s List containers editor James Baker discusses with Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sand about the prospects for the box markets here.