Forecasts are difficult, especially about the future. But shipping’s focus for a while now has been squarely on 2050 when, let’s face it, the majority of those making bold pledges about the industry’s transformation are not going to be around to observe the accuracy of their optimism.

Setting out what’s achievable by 2030 is more difficult, arguably impossible.

Reports setting out the likelihood of future scenarios for shipping’s zero-carbon transition have become a regular waypoint in helping us assess where we are, but the latest reports are much more circumspect about what’s possible in the immediate future and they are all stress the importance of what’s happening in the next few years.

In case it had passed you by, we are in a decisive decade for shipping. That’s certainly the message that is being trumpeted this week at London International Shipping Week in the latest round of scenario setting reports by the class societies, who have now become our default forecasters.

And that matters because the actions being taken, or more precisely not being taken now, are obviously going to affect whether we hit the now massively accelerated decarbonisation targets set out by the IMO earlier this summer.

But it does also affect the likely long-term scenarios as well, because again the investment decisions being taken, or deferred now, directly link to the 2040 and 2050 targets.

The next two to three years are absolutely crucial.

Both DNV and Lloyd’s Register have outlook reports out this week and the podcast today offers some insights from those behind the reports.

Lloyd's List’s LISW podcasts are sponsored by DNV. Click here to view 2023 DNV/Lloyd’s List Intelligence Maritime Safety Trends report.

Speaking on today’s podcast:

• Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen, chief executive of DNV Maritime

• Ruth Boumphrey, chief executive of Lloyd’s Register Foundation

• Claudene Sharp-Patel, technical director at Lloyd’s Register

• Eirik Ovrum, principal consultant in maritime environmental technology at DNV